LONDON — The UK saw a dramatic drop in net migration in 2024, with long-term net arrivals falling to just 431,000—nearly half the level recorded the year before—as arrivals for work and study visas plummeted following tightening immigration rules.

Sharp decline driven by fewer work and study visas

According to provisional data from the ONS, long-term net migration fell from 860,000 in 2023 to 431,000 in 2024. The drop comes amid recent policy changes introduced in 2024 aimed at restricting visa-based immigration.

The reduction was particularly pronounced among non-EU+ nationals. The number of non-EU+ immigrants arriving for study in the year ending June 2025 — a category that dominates work- and study-related migration — declined to 288,000, down 25% from the prior year. Work-related immigration also plunged: only 171,000 non-EU+ nationals came under work routes during the same period, a 61% drop compared with the previous 12 months. Changes to visa policy — such as restricting overseas students from bringing dependants — played a central role.

Emigration rises, shifting migration balance further

At the same time, emigration from the UK increased. The number of people leaving the country long-term rose to 693,000 in the year ending June 2025, compared with 650,000 the previous year. This combination of reduced immigration and rising emigration drove net migration down to its lowest in years. Total long-term immigration also shrank, falling to 898,000 — a sharp drop from 1,299,000 in YE June 2024 and well below the record peak of 1.47 million in March 2023.

Policy shifts and visa clampdown

Observers attribute the decline to a series of immigration reforms rolled out since late 2023. New rules introduced by the Home Office — continued under the current government of Keir Starmer—tightened conditions for work and study visas, limited dependants’ rights for students, and raised thresholds for skilled-worker routes.

In its official bulletin, the ONS noted that the fall in non-EU+ immigration “follows policy changes brought in during 2024 restricting visa applications.”

Economic and demographic implications

The drop in net migration has sparked mixed reactions, with supporters saying it eases pressure on public services and critics warning it could harm sectors dependent on migrant labor—especially higher education, health care, and other skilled-worker industries. Economists caution the country may face labour shortages as work-visa inflows contract.

Some analysts note that even after the fall, net migration remains well above pre-Brexit norms, when annual figures typically ranged between 250,000 and 350,000.

Others point out that the peak migration seen in 2022–2023 — driven in part by humanitarian schemes and relaxed visa rules — may have masked underlying labour market trends, and the 2024 drop is a return to more manageable levels.

Political context and public reaction

The decline in migration comes against the backdrop of political pressure to curb immigration — a key issue in the 2024 election and central to the agenda of anti-immigration parties such as Reform UK.

Despite the drop in net migration, public concern over immigration has remained elevated. Some commentators argue that short-term fluctuations may not significantly alter long-term demographic views, especially as asylum applications and irregular arrivals remain politically sensitive.

Government ministers have welcomed the lower numbers. A Home Office spokesperson said the reduction marks “a step forward in managing migration sustainably” but added the government intends to pursue further reforms to ensure immigration aligns with the UK’s economic and social needs.

What’s next for migration and policy

With visas already tightened and the political climate focused on controlling migration, experts anticipate further reductions in UK net migration — possibly returning to levels last seen before Brexit.

However, the challenge for the government will be balancing immigration control with labor market demands. Sectors like health care, education, and technology, which rely heavily on foreign talent, may face staffing shortages if restrictive policies continue.

Longer term, demographic trends such as an aging population could also shape future migration policy. Some may argue that lower migration could exacerbate workforce gaps, while others believe tighter controls are needed to ease pressure on housing, public services, and infrastructure.