IBM unveiled a detailed plan to achieve a long-sought milestone in computing: demonstrating "quantum advantage" on a scientifically relevant problem by the end of 2026 . The announcement, made at the company's Quantum Developer Conference, centers on new hardware, software, and a collaborative framework designed to prove a quantum computer's superior capability when paired with classical supercomputers .

This effort is a key stepping stone in IBM's broader roadmap to build a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 . The company states its confidence is rooted in recent engineering breakthroughs, including a new processor architecture and advanced error-decoding technology completed a year ahead of schedule .

The Roadmap: From Advantage to Fault Tolerance

IBM's plan is methodical, targeting two parallel objectives. The near-term goal is "scientific quantum advantage," where a quantum computer working alongside a classical high-performance computing (HPC) system solves a problem that is otherwise intractable . The longer-term vision is a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of running billions of operations reliably, which IBM has named "Starling" and aims to deliver by 2029 .

By 2026, IBM plans to deploy a quantum processor capable of executing circuits with 7,500 quantum gates across 360 qubits, a significant leap in complexity intended to unlock the first practical demonstrations of advantage . This work is designed to provide clients with a tangible benchmarking toolkit to evaluate real-world use cases .

Nighthawk: The Hardware Built for Advantage

Central to the 2026 goal is the IBM Quantum Nighthawk processor, slated for release by the end of 2025 . Nighthawk features 120 qubits arranged in a square lattice, connected by 218 tunable couplers . This design increases connectivity between qubits, allowing for the execution of circuits that are 30% more complex than on IBM's previous best processor while maintaining low error rates .

“Nighthawk is our most advanced quantum processor yet and designed with an architecture to complement high-performing quantum software to deliver quantum advantage next year,” said Jay Gambetta, Director of IBM Research and an IBM Fellow .

The processor is modular, meaning multiple units can be linked. IBM plans to deliver a system with three interconnected Nighthawk modules (totaling 360 qubits) in 2026 to reach the required scale for its advantage demonstrations .

Software, Error Mitigation and the "Advantage Tracker"

Hardware alone is insufficient. Quantum states are fragile, and computations are prone to noise. IBM is advancing its Qiskit software stack with new error-mitigation tools that leverage classical HPC to decrease the cost of extracting accurate results by over 100 times . A new C++ interface will also allow quantum programs to run natively within existing supercomputing environments, facilitating the hybrid workflows essential for near-term advantage .

Crucially, IBM and its partners are establishing an open, community-led "quantum advantage tracker" to rigorously validate any claims . The tracker, with initial contributions from Algorithmiq, the Flatiron Institute, and BlueQubit, will host experiments and benchmark them against the best classical methods .

“I’m proud that our team... is leading one of the three projects in the new quantum advantage tracker,” said Sabrina Maniscalco, CEO of Algorithmiq. “These are only the first steps – quantum advantage will take time to verify, and the tracker will let everyone follow that journey” .

Building the Foundation for Fault Tolerance

While Nighthawk targets near-term advantage, IBM is simultaneously developing the foundational technology for fault-tolerant systems. The company announced IBM Quantum Loon, an experimental processor that has demonstrated all the key hardware components needed for practical quantum error correction .

A critical breakthrough supporting this path is a new error-decoding solution. IBM engineers implemented a novel algorithm on a standard AMD FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) that can decode error signals in under 480 nanoseconds—faster than new errors arise . This real-time decoding, completed a year ahead of schedule, is essential for correcting errors in a fault-tolerant system .

A Competitive and Investment Landscape

IBM's aggressive timeline places it at the forefront of a crowded and well-funded field. Companies like Google, Microsoft, and Quantinuum have published roadmaps with varying timelines for achieving their own versions of quantum advantage and fault tolerance, often targeting the end of this decade . Global investment in quantum computing has surged, with equity funding reaching $3.77 billion in the first nine months of 2025 alone .

Industry observers note the progress but emphasize the need for verification. “Everybody solves the problem with some combination of hardware and software tricks,” said Sridhar Tayur, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, highlighting the importance of common benchmarks . IBM’s community tracker is a direct response to this need for standardized validation .

The Path Ahead

If successful, IBM's 2026 milestone would mark a historic inflection point, transitioning quantum computing from a purely experimental tool to a scientifically valuable accelerator. Early commercial applications are already being explored in fields like finance, where HSBC used an IBM quantum processor to improve bond trading predictions by 34% , and logistics, where D-Wave systems are optimizing production schedules .

The company is also scaling its manufacturing capabilities, shifting production to a state-of-the-art 300mm wafer fabrication facility. This move has already doubled the speed of its processor development cycles .

The coming two years will be a critical proving ground. Through its Nighthawk processor, enhanced Qiskit tools, and the open advantage tracker, IBM is creating the technical and collaborative infrastructure to not just claim, but to communally verify, the first real-world problem where quantum computers provide a definitive edge.