India’s crude oil imports from Russia are poised for a significant rebound this November, with preliminary data from analytics firm Kpler indicating volumes could reach 1.855 million barrels per day (bpd) — the highest in five months.

This spike comes as Indian refiners rushed to secure discounted Russian crude ahead of a critical deadline. Buyers had until November 21, 2025, to wind down dealings with major Russian producers under U.S. sanctions — notably Rosneft and Lukoil.

Despite expectations that sanctions would curb demand, India defied predictions. Imports jumped from about 1.48 million bpd in October to 1.855 million bpd in November. According to reports, the surge makes this the highest monthly intake since July, when India imported around 1.52 million bpd.

Why the Surge?

Refiners in India appear to have scooped up discounted barrels amid the tightening sanctions climate. A trade source told media outlets that November’s high supply was driven by refiners trying to top up inventories before the U.S. deadline. With fuel-production rules coming into effect in the European Union in 2026 — restricting the use of Russian crude for EU-market fuels — refiners also saw a short window to lock in favorable cargoes.

In addition, November saw most Indian refineries operating at higher capacity. According to Kpler, planned maintenance outages at key plants ended in October, allowing higher throughput. Strong domestic demand, particularly amid festive and agricultural cycles, also supported a rebound in oil consumption.

Implications and What’s Next

While November saw a dramatic increase, the rebound may be short-lived. Several trade and refining sources expect imports to plummet in December to around 600,000–650,000 bpd, potentially the lowest in at least three years.

That decline would reflect growing caution among Indian refiners. Reports indicate that many have already halted fresh purchases from sanctioned Russian producers. State-owned refiners are reportedly restricting their exposure, while others are limiting processing of Russian crude to cargoes already committed before sanctions took full effect.

Moreover, with the EU’s January 21, 2026 deadline looming — after which fuels refined from Russian crude may be rejected in European markets — Indian companies face growing pressure to diversify supply sources.

Strategic Takeaways

• The November surge underscores how economic incentives still drive Indian refiners to take advantage of discounted Russian crude.

• The rapid drop expected in December highlights the delicate balance between opportunistic buying and geopolitical risk.

• The evolving regulatory environment — especially in the EU — may accelerate India’s shift toward non-Russian sources.

• How Indian refiners navigate supply diversification in coming months could reshape the country’s long-term energy procurement strategy.

As India continues to manage the trade-off between discounted supply and compliance with Western sanctions, the coming months will be critical. For now, November’s jump in Russian oil imports is a clear signal: despite mounting geopolitical headwinds, economics remains a powerful motivator in India’s crude-oil strategy.